Field position sets the baseline
The 2026 league curve estimates the eventual drive result from the current ball position. Monotone constraints keep punt and scoring curves moving in football-sensible directions.
INPLAYLABS · LIVE DRIVE OUTCOME MODEL
Every yard
moves the price.
Estimate the no-vig fair probability and price of how an NFL drive will end. This NFL model is based on 2026 regular-season drive results: league field-position rates set the compass, then current-season offense and defense results move the estimate.
105
COMPLETED GAMES
2,204 drives modeled
FREE LABS RESEARCH TOOL
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SET THE SITUATION
Drive state
2026 NFL DRIVE RESULTS
MODEL SIGNAL
League baseline
Team adjustments off
OWN
OPP
Heavy-weather disclosure: This model does not adjust for wind, rain, snow, temperature or field conditions. In a heavy-weather game, these prices can be materially unreliable—especially field-goal, punt, turnover and scoring estimates.
NO-VIG ESTIMATES
Fair prices
League average · Opponent 20
THE DRIVE CURVE
See the price move
Select an outcome to trace its probability from the offense’s own goal line to the opponent’s goal line.
Punt probability
0.3%
ASK THE 2026 DATA
A basic answer.
From real drives.
Ask about team points per drive, scoring, touchdowns, punts, turnovers or field goals through Week 7.
LABS ANSWER
Ask a question about the 2026 team-drive results.
HOW TO READ IT
League first. Team second.
Teams adjust, not replace
Offense and defense effects are ridge-shrunk toward league average. That stops a small early-season sample from overpowering the broader league signal.
Prices are no-vig
American and decimal prices are mathematical fair prices from the estimated probability. They are not sportsbook lines, predictions of certainty, or betting advice.
Outcome definitions and limitations
Punt: drive ends in a punt. Turnover: interception, lost fumble, turnover on downs, or an opponent defensive touchdown. Touchdown: possessing offense scores a touchdown. Field goal attempt: drive ends in a made, missed, or blocked field-goal try. Field goal made: drive ends in a made field goal. Score: offensive touchdown or made field goal. No score: the complement of score. Safety: the possessing offense concedes a safety.
Each drive contributes at most one observation per five-yard band reached. The model uses 2026 NFL regular-season results through Week 7 and considers field position, offense and defense only—it does not yet use down, distance, time, score differential, injuries, venue, coaching changes or weather. Field-goal-made is constrained below field-goal-attempt; score is touchdown plus made field goal.